The possibility that this weekend a good storm of water will fall in the Canary Islands has doubled in a matter of one day. According to the predictive models of the National Hurricane Center of the United States (NHC, in its acronym in English), an entity that warns about the formation of hurricanes and cyclones in the Atlantic, the amount of rain that could leave a tropical cyclone that is forming to the south of the Archipelago and presumably will affect the Islands from this Saturday, it has gone from a maximum of 425 mm on Tuesday night to 853 mm this Wednesday.
The US National Hurricane Center monitors the formation of a tropical cyclone south of the Canary Islands
Despite this considerable increase, the doctor in Physics and Superior Meteorologist of the State, Juan Jesús González, assures on his social networks that this prediction continues to have a “low possibility of happening at the moment”, so we will have to be attentive to any new update offered by the NHC from now on. As González has clarified, “there are still 1 or 2 days to know the final outcome.”
“Models insist on producing amazing simulations. The most impressive of these predictions is the large amount of water predicted to the SW, very close to the Canary Islands, as a result of a strengthening of convection. This new prediction today is outrageous: >800 mm!”, González said in Twitter. “Therefore, the most dangerous thing about this situation is its potential to leave torrential precipitation rather than wind. Especially considering the complex orography of the Canary Islands and the vulnerability of the territory. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen, or even come close!”
Since this Wednesday, the media have reported the possibility of a tropical cyclone forming south of the Canary Islands, according to NHC predictions, which could reach the Archipelago in the next five days. The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has explained that “after a summer with very little cyclone activity, the Atlantic has ‘awakened’ in September. There is quite a bit of activity right now, with a tropical storm, a hurricane, and three developing systems. Of those three, we are especially interested in one”.
The Aemet has reported that it is likely that there will be intense gusts of wind on the summits and, above all, that there will be rains in many parts of the Archipelago starting on Saturday, weak to moderate that day, but that they could increase in intensity the following day. “We will continue to report,” the agency has promised.